Friday, January 06, 2012

another interesting overview: about telco market research

another interesting overview:

Indonesia - Telecoms, Mobile, Broadband and Forecasts, 17th edition published by Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd. in November, 2011. This report consists of 132 Pages and the price starts from US $ 995.

Abstract

Overview

This report provides a comprehensive overview of the trends and developments in the telecommunications and digital media markets in Indonesia.

Subjects covered include:

  • Key statistics;
  • Scenario forecasts (fixed, mobile, internet subscribers)
  • Market and industry overviews;
  • Regulatory environment;
  • Major players (fixed and mobile);
  • Infrastructure development - national and international;
  • Digital media;
  • Mobile voice and data market;
  • Internet, including VoIP and IPTV;
  • Broadband services;
  • Regulatory environment.

Executive Summary

Wireless technology provides Indonesia's fixed-line market with fresh new growth

Indonesia, the largest economy within the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia has built a substantial telecom sector, providing a solid platform for further growth. This has been despite the occasional serious setback. This country of around 240 million people presents a huge potential market; however, it faces some particularly big challenges that need to be confronted if it is to successfully continue the building of the telecommunications infrastructure needed to support what is a uniquely complex geography. At the same time, there is no avoiding the fact that Indonesia must also deal with a range of social, political and economic issues that have been proving problematic.

Although more than a decade ago, the Asian economic crisis of the late 1990s forced the government to take steps to reshape the telecom industry that are still having an impact today. In fact in recent times the telecom market has taken on a new impetus. Previously this the government had certainly been addressing the issues and working towards a more competitive market; but progress had been slow and at times erratic. The reform process was accelerated, with the government being more decisive; over this same period Indonesia has been experiencing healthy sustained growth in subscriber numbers and revenues.

While fixed-line teledensity remained disconcertingly low for a number of years there has been a recent upturn that has delivered much better outcomes (over 16% fixed-line penetration by early 2011). The biggest single factor in this surge has been the advent of the fixed-wireless service. This technology has considerably boosted the growth rate in the last few years and provided much-needed basic telephone services to previously unserved communities. The roll-out of fixed-wireless infrastructure has been given good support by the operators with Bakrie Telecom and PT Telkom leading the way. By end-2010, fixed-wireless services made up about 80% of the total fixed-line subscriber base. In other words, in a short space of four years this technology platform had transformed the fixed-line market.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's mobile market has continued to grow. While the global financial crisis saw growth slow somewhat in 2009, the market has did not lose much momentum. In the 18 months up to June 2011 the subscriber base grew from 150 million to 250 million. Whilst penetration had passed 100%, the industry view was that there was still considerable potential for further growth in the market. Market interest hard started to shift to the 3G services being offered by the operators, attracted by the potential of 3G to boost Average Revenue per User (ARPU)

The number of internet users in Indonesia was estimated at 22 million by early 2011, representing a relatively low overall penetration of 9%. At the same time, the internet subscription market was generally depressed with less than 7 million subscribers reported by early 2011. Broadband internet access, whilst certainly increasing, remained at a relatively low level of activity. Importantly, broadband subscriptions were already running at around 40% of the total internet subscriber base. While the government was continuing to promote greater use of online services, these efforts appeared to be having only limited impact on the take up rate of the various Internet services on offer.

Market highlights:

  • Indonesia's mobile market passed 250 million subscribers in mid-2011 with penetration running at just over 100%;
  • After years of strong growth, the annual increase in mobile subscribers had moderated somewhat by 2011 to somewhere around 20%;
  • Indonesia's 3G market was still in its infancy four years after launch, with 3G subscribers representing only a modest percentage of the total mobile subscriber base;
  • Nevertheless, much is expected of 3G and beyond with the operators keenly pursuing 3G business because of its potential to increased ARPU.
  • Internet penetration remained low (9% user penetration by end-2010) and internet subscription rates were considerably lower;
  • Broadband internet access numbers in Indonesia were starting to grow and by 2011 broadband as a proportion of the total internet base was running at 40%;
  • DSL remained the dominant broadband platform for the time being; the heavy reliance on limited copper-wire infrastructure to access DSL services offers a huge opportunity for increased use of wireless-based internet access.

Indonesia - key telecom parameters - 2010 - 2011

Category20102011(e)
Fixed-line services:   
Total number of subscribers40.0 million 43.0 million
Annual growth18%8%
Fixed-line penetration (population) 17%20%
Fixed-line penetration (household)69% 74%
Internet:  
Total number of subscribers5.8 million6.5 million
Annual growth 18%12%
Internet subscriber penetration (population)2.4% 2.7%
Internet subscriber penetration (household)10%11%
Mobile services:  
Total number of subscribers 220 million265 million
Annual growth38%20%
Mobile penetration (population)92%110%

(Source: BuddeComm)

Table of Contents

1. Key Statistics

2. Telecommunications Market

  • 2.1. Overview
  • 2.2. Economy
  • 2.3. Background to development
  • 2.4. Market growth
    • 2.4.1. Mobile sector
    • 2.4.2. Fixed-line services
    • 2.4.3. Broadband
    • 2.4.4. Other

3. Regulatory Environment

  • 3.1. Background
    • 3.1.1. Telecommunications Law 1989
    • 3.1.2. Telecommunications Law 2000
    • 3.1.3. Cross shareholdings
  • 3.2. Corruption
  • 3.3. Regulatory developments
    • 3.3.1. SMS spam
    • 3.3.2. AT&T licence
    • 3.3.3. Control of the internet
    • 3.3.4. Quality of service
    • 3.3.5. Price fixing
    • 3.3.6. Third fixed-line operator
  • 3.4. Anti-monopoly case
  • 3.5. Privatisation process
    • 3.5.1. Background
    • 3.5.2. Foreign ownership

4. Major Fixed Network Operators

  • 4.1. PT Telkom Indonesia
    • 4.1.1. Overview
    • 4.1.2. Statistics
    • 4.1.3. Corporate structure and privatisation
    • 4.1.4. Strategic development
    • 4.1.5. Background: the KSO partnerships
  • 4.2. PT Indonesian Satellite Corporation (Indosat)
    • 4.2.1. Overview
    • 4.2.2. Corporate structure and privatisation
    • 4.2.3. Statistics
    • 4.2.4. Fixed-line business
    • 4.2.5. Strategic developments
  • 4.3. PT Satelit Palapa Indonesia (SATELINDO)
  • 4.4. PT Bakrie Telecom
    • 4.4.1. Overview
    • 4.4.2. Statistics
    • 4.4.3. Corporate structure
    • 4.4.4. Strategic development

5. Telecommunications Infrastructure

  • 5.1. National infrastructure
    • 5.1.1. Overview
    • 5.1.2. Background to development
    • 5.1.3. Fixed-line statistics
    • 5.1.4. Infrastructure development
    • 5.1.5. Joint operating service (KSO) ventures - five-zone plan
    • 5.1.6. Rural telephony
    • 5.1.7. Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
    • 5.1.8. Telecom towers
  • 5.2. International infrastructure
    • 5.2.1. International gateway exchanges
    • 5.2.2. Submarine cable networks
    • 5.2.3. Satellite networks

6. Internet Market

  • 6.1. Overview
    • 6.1.1. Market survey
  • 6.2. Internet statistics
  • 6.3. Social Networking
  • 6.4. Regulatory developments
    • 6.4.1. Indonesian Internet Agency (LII)
    • 6.4.2. Domain names
    • 6.4.3. Internet information control
    • 6.4.4. Cyber laws
  • 6.5. Internet infrastructure
    • 6.5.1. Telkom's national IP backbone
    • 6.5.2. IPv6
  • 6.6. ISP market
  • 6.7. Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)

7. Broadband Market

  • 7.1. Overview
    • 7.1.1. Broadband statistics
  • 7.2. Broadband market background
  • 7.3. First Media
  • 7.4. TelkomNet
  • 7.5. IndosatM2 (IM2)
  • 7.6. ID-WiBB
  • 7.7. Wireless broadband
    • 7.7.1. Background
    • 7.7.2. WiFi hotspots
    • 7.7.3. WiMAX
    • 7.7.4. LTE
    • 7.7.5. RIM's Blackberry
  • 7.8. Internet via satellite

8. Digital Media / Digital Economy

  • 8.1. Digital Economy
    • 8.1.1. E-commerce
  • 8.2. Digital Media
    • 8.2.1. Broadcasting market
    • 8.2.2. Regulatory environment
    • 8.2.3. Free-to-Air (FTA) TV
    • 8.2.4. Cable and pay TV
    • 8.2.5. Satellite TV
    • 8.2.6. Internet Protocol TV (IPTV)
    • 8.2.7. Mobile TV

9. Mobile Communications

  • 9.1. Overview of Indonesia's mobile market
  • 9.2. Background to market development
    • 9.2.1. Foreign ownership regulations
    • 9.2.2. Temasek and anti-monopoly ruling
  • 9.3. Mobile technologies
    • 9.3.1. GSM
    • 9.3.2. Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA)
    • 9.3.3. Analogue services (AMPS and NMT)
    • 9.3.4. General Packet Radio Service (GPRS)
  • 9.4. Third Generation (3G) mobile
    • 9.4.1. Initial licensing process
    • 9.4.2. Second 3G auction
    • 9.4.3. Launch of 3G services and beyond
    • 9.4.4. Expansion and marketing of 3G services
  • 9.5. Mobile voice services
    • 9.5.1. Prepaid
    • 9.5.2. Satellite mobile
  • 9.6. Mobile data services
    • 9.6.1. Short Message Service (SMS)
    • 9.6.2. Multimedia Messaging Service (MMS)
    • 9.6.3. Mobile TV
    • 9.6.4. Blackberry
    • 9.6.5. Mobile advertising
    • 9.6.6. Mobile banking
    • 9.6.7. Village Phone Program (VPP)
  • 9.7. Major mobile operators
    • 9.7.1. Mobile Operator statistics
    • 9.7.2. PT Telkomsel
    • 9.7.3. PT Indosat
    • 9.7.4. XL Axiata (formerly PT Excelcomindo Pratama)
    • 9.7.5. PT Sampoerna Telekomunikasi Indonesia (STI)
    • 9.7.6. Mobile-8
    • 9.7.7. Axis (formerly Natrindo Telepon Selular)
    • 9.7.8. PT Hutchison CP Telecommunications
    • 9.7.9. Smart Telecom
  • 10. Forecasts
  • 10.1. Forecasts - fixed-line market: 2015; 2020
  • 10.2. Forecasts - internet services - 2015; 2020
  • 10.3. Forecasts - mobile market: 2015; 2020
  • 10.4. Notes on scenario forecasts

11. Glossary of Abbreviations

LIST OF TABLES

  • Table 1 - Country statistics - 2011
  • Table 2 - Telephone network statistics - 2010
  • Table 3 - Internet user statistics - 2010
  • Table 4 - Broadband statistics - 2010
  • Table 5 - Mobile statistics - 2010
  • Table 6 - National telecommunications authorities
  • Table 7 - Indonesia's real GDP growth rate - 2006 - 2011
  • Table 8 - Major fixed-line operators - subscribers - 2009 - 2011
  • Table 9 - PT Telkom's fixed-line subscribers - 2004 - 2011
  • Table 10 - PT Telkom's fixed lines in service - 2007 - 2011
  • Table 11 - PT Telkom - postpaid and prepaid fixed wireless subscribers - 2010
  • Table 12 - PT Telekom - fixed wireless pre and postpaid ARPU - 2004 - 2010
  • Table 13 - PT Telkom - revenue contribution by market segment - 2010
  • Table 14 - PT Telkom's subscribers by segment - September 2010
  • Table 15 - PT Telkom - fixed wireless subscribers - 2003 - 2011
  • Table 16 - PT Indosat - fixed wireless subscribers - 2006 - 2011
  • Table 17 - PT Indosat - fixed wireless pre and postpaid ARPU - 2006 - 2010
  • Table 18 - PT Indosat - revenue contribution by market segment - 2009 - 2010
  • Table 19 - Bakrie Telecom subscribers - 2004 - 2011
  • Table 20 - Bakrie Telecom - postpaid and prepaid fixed wireless subscribers - 2009 - 2010
  • Table 21 - Bakrie Telecom's pre and postpaid ARPU - 2004 - 2010
  • Table 22 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity - 1995 - 2012
  • Table 23 - Fixed lines subscribers and annual change by operator - 2010
  • Table 24 - Fixed wireless v. wireline subscribers - June 2011
  • Table 25 - PT Telkom's national network statistics and annual growth - 2007 - 2010
  • Table 26 - Five-year USO deployment of lines plan for villages - 2006 - 2010
  • Table 27 - Fixed-wireless (WLL) subscribers - 2003; 2007 - 2011
  • Table 28 - Fixed-wireless (WLL) subscribers by operator - June 2011
  • Table 29 - PT Telkom's fixed wireless subscribers - 2003 - 2010
  • Table 30 - PT Telkom - fixed wireless subscribers - 2010
  • Table 31 - Internet users - 1998 - 2012
  • Table 32 - Internet subscribers - 1998 - 2011
  • Table 33 - Dial-up internet subscribers - 2004 - 2010
  • Table 34 - Total international internet bandwidth - 1998 - 2011
  • Table 35 - Households with internet access (%) - 2005 - 2011
  • Table 36 - Domain name registrations - June 2010
  • Table 37 - Internet licences by licence type - 2007
  • Table 38 - PT Telkom's dial-up internet subscribers - 2004 - 2008
  • Table 39 - Fixed broadband subscribers - 2000 - 2012
  • Table 40 - DSL subscribers - 2001 - 2010
  • Table 41 - Broadband subscribers and households - 2010
  • Table 42 - PT Telkom's broadband subscribers - 2004 - 2010
  • Table 43 - Key broadcasting statistics - 2010
  • Table 44 - Broadcasting sector, TV households and home satellites - 1997 - 2010
  • Table 45 - Television audience share by operator - December 2009
  • Table 46 - Pay TV subscribers - cable and satellite - 2001 - 2010
  • Table 47 - Mobile subscribers - 1995 - 2012
  • Table 48 - CDMA mobile operators and subscribers - March 2011
  • Table 49 - 3G mobile operators and subscribers - March 2009
  • Table 50 - Prepaid subscribers - selected mobile operators - 2010
  • Table 51 - Major mobile operators and subscribers - March 2011
  • Table 52 - Subscribers and market share by operator - March 2011
  • Table 53 - Telkomsel subscribers - postpaid, prepaid and market share - 1999 - 2011
  • Table 54 - Telkomsel post/prepaid ARPU - 2010
  • Table 55 - Telkomsel subscribers - postpaid and prepaid - 2001 - 2010
  • Table 56 - Telkomsel prepaid subscribers as proportion of total - 2002; 2004; 2009; 2010
  • Table 57 - PT Indosat mobile subscribers - 2005 - 2011
  • Table 58 - PT Indosat postpaid and prepaid subscribers - June 2009
  • Table 59 - PT Indosat postpaid and prepaid ARPU - 2008 - 2010
  • Table 60 - XL Axiata mobile subscribers - 2005 - 2011
  • Table 61 - PT Sampoerna (STI) subscribers - 2007 - 2009
  • Table 62 - Mobile-8 subscribers - 2004 - 2009
  • Table 63 - SmartFren subscribers - 2010 - 2011
  • Table 64 - Axis Indonesia subscribers - 2008 - 2011
  • Table 65 - Hutchison CP subscribers - 2007 - 2010
  • Table 66 - Smart Telecom subscribers - 2007 - 2011
  • Table 67 - Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
  • Table 68 - Forecast of Internet subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020
  • Table 69 - Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates - 2015; 2020

LIST OF CHARTS

  • Chart 1 - Fixed-line subscribers and teledensity - 1995 - 2012
  • Chart 2 - Internet subscribers and international bandwidth - 1998 - 2011
  • Chart 3 - Mobile subscribers and penetration - 2000 - 2012
  • Chart 4 - 3G mobile operator market share - March 2009
  • Chart 5 - Subscribers and market share by operator - March 2011

LIST OF EXHIBITS:

  • Exhibit 1 - Major shareholder categoriess in PT Telkom - December 2010
  • Exhibit 2 - Major shareholders in PT Indosat - June 2011
  • Exhibit 3 - Original consortia, and KSO operating in each geographical zone
  • Exhibit 4 - Indonesian satellites - 2011
  • Exhibit 5 - Major FTA television broadcasters, ownership, launch date and coverage

posted by ridei at 3:08 PM

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